India's Long-Term Defence Strategy

India maintains, to date, the best defence system known to man. Sadly, it takes about two centuries to activate. Let me explain. Since 1757, Britain became the dominant power in the subcontinent. They thought they had colonised yet another backward race and would relieve the White Man’s Burden. Two hundred and fifty years since, English contains more and more words from Hindi, Urdu, and other subcontinental languages, curry has become a mainstay of English cuisine, and there are so many South Asians in the UK that some people call the capital city Londonistan, though not necessarily in the same context that Melanie Phillips talked about in her book by the same name. Christianity came to India, first in the second century and then again with cannons and gunpowder at the fag end of the fifteenth century. Islam entered India in the early eighth century and made India a home after the Second Battle of Tarain in 1192. Both these world religions came up against a solid wall when it came to proselytising in India. For a nation so easily conquered in battle, the mettle of the Indian people was such that both these religions are in a significant minority. Not only that, both were over time moulded to Indian needs – the caste system and multiple saints and other intervening deities entered the practices of Christians and Muslims in India. A few millennia ago, tribes from Central Asia migrated to India – not in some crude Aryan invasion theory, but steadily and gradually. Obviously, they had to displace or conquer local inhabitants, and this proved to be a minor hindrance. In what shouldn’t be a surprise by now, the records of these groups reveal a sea change in their lifestyles. People known hitherto for blood rituals, horse sacrifices, and other such behaviour, over a period of two to three centuries, transformed and evidence of such practices is relegated only to the stuff of myths and legends.

Today, India faces another crisis – a militarily and economically superior China in the northeast, and a nuclear-capable yet highly unstable, terrorist-sponsoring Pakistan in the northwest. Indian nationalists will proudly proclaim of their four successes against Pakistan (in 1948, 1965, 1971, and 1999), and try to pass off the China debacle solely on Nehru’s and Menon’s incompetence. However, the fact remains that there were and still are serious flaws in Indian defence planning. The problem is perhaps partially strategic, but it is more a question of materiel. But behind both of these lies the un-strategic Indian mind – for if the strategy were sound, the same people would not hesitate to provide for it either. India’s defence industry, though I am sure it can run circles around Togo’s, is in complete shambles and has been since independence contrary to what analysts have said.

Proof of this lies no further than India’s weapon systems procurement history. The Indian Navy was forced to go in for Israeli-made Barak missiles in 2006 because India’s highly touted Integrated Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) had failed to produce results. The Navy, waiting for the Trishul, eventually chose to purchase missiles from abroad because despite twenty-plus years in the making and declared successful by the manufacturers (Defence Research and Development Organisation – DRDO), it did not evoke confidence among senior Navy officials. First test firing of the Trishul took place in 1991, and the manufacturer declared test firings completed by 1998. The armed forces, however, rejected the missile, as not ready for service. So development continued, until 2003, when the project was cancelled. But the project, which has cost nearly $200 million so far, had political friends. Development was allowed to continue, even though neither the army nor the navy wanted it. Trishul’s range is approximately nine kilometres, and missile has suffered from reliability problems, particularly with its guidance system.

The IGMDP has failed in its other projects as well. Akash, another missile which was supposed to be inducted in the mid 1990s, was only recently purchased by the Indian Air Force (IAF). Agni I and Agni II, the mainstay of India’s rocket forces, have both been inducted into the Armed Forces with barely three tests each while other countries run over a hundred tests of new missile systems. The cost overruns in India’s missile development programme have been around Rs. 1,400 crores, and the promised projects are as of now 14 years behind schedule. Agni III, though test fired in 2008, has had only a 66% success rate so far. And we are yet to hear any news of the Surya Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM).

The Air Force is another story of decline. The sanctioned strength of the IAF is 45 squadrons, each squadron consisting of 18 planes. Due to crashes, hiring issues, and other problems, India has never fielded beyond 39.5 squadrons. Furthermore, other than a few state of the art Su-30 MKIs and MiG-29s, India still has a large number of MiG-21s. Admittedly, these have been refurbished (twice), but the basic capabilities of an air frame only deteriorate over time, not increase. The workhorses of the IAF have had the lion’s share of media attention too, for the plane has been plagued with a series of crashes over the years. In 2008, India was forced to announce a tender for the purchase of up to 240 Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MMCRA) because of the delays in the production of India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), the Tejas. Although an LCA will be no match for an advanced MMCRA (which is already being threatened by the next generation of places such as the Su-35 and the F-22), it can help plug in the gaps and provide reasonable support in the air and to ground troops.

Indigenous Indian armour is yet to make an appearance. The Army relies heavily upon Russian supplies of T-72s and T-90s. India’s main battle tanks had one been relatively advanced by world standards, but long delays in fielding the indigenous Arjun Main Battle Tank (MBT), combined with a successful Pakistani/Ukrainian program for its T-80UD Al-Khalid tanks, eroded India’s local advantage. The poor performance of T-72s in combat against modern main battle tanks could not have been comforting, either. In early October 2006, Indian announced that the Indian Army intended to produce nearly 1,000 T-90S ‘Bhishma’ main battle tanks in India by 2020. These would be bought in addition to the 310 T-90 MBTs already under contract from Russia. Later that month, news reports noted a follow-on contract for another 330 T-90S tank kits from Russia that would assembled in India. The modernized T-72 now known as the T-90 has reportedly encountered serious problems in Indian service, from issues with its Thales thermal imaging systems, to difficulties in hot weather, to low readiness rates. Meanwhile, negotiations with Russia over technology transfer issues had shelved the 1,000 tank indigenous production goal. The Arjun project has continued to fade, however, with the Indian Army announcing in July 2008 that production would be capped at just 124 tanks. As the final act in the battle for the core of India’s future tank force, recent reports indicate that the Russians have removed their technology transfer roadblocks, clearing the way for fully indigenous T-90S production in India.

As of December 2006, the 310 T-90S tanks imported from Russia under a February 2001 Rs. 3,625 crore contract are divided between the first lot of 124 T-90S tanks bought off-the-shelf, and 186 imported in knocked-down condition for assembly at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi. The goal was to begin progressive manufacture of the follow-on batch of 1,000 from 2007-2008 onward, working under the license production agreement associated with India’s 2001 order. The idea was to build upon and broaden India’s indigenous capabilities as the process moved forward. The purchase of 330 more ready-for-assembly T-90 kits later in October 2006 would appear to be a deviation from this strategy, but as of August 2008, production of the fully localized Indian tanks has not even begun yet at the Avadi Heavy Vehicles Factory. Jane’s believed that the order for the 330 sets of T-90S components was driven by chronic delays in the production schedule of the domestic Arjun MBT, and multi-year delays in T-72 modernization due to bureaucratic vacillation. Confirmation of the T-90’s status as India’s future tank has also faced operational difficulties, including the in-service difficulties. These include repeated heat-related malfunctions of the fire-control system’s key Thales Catherine thermal imaging (TI) camera, lack of cooling systems leading to uninhabitable temperatures over 60C degrees inside the tank, and reports that at least one armored regiment had an in-service rate of just 25% for its T-90s. The T-72s’ “Project Rhino” may eventually get started as well under the Army’s 2020 plans, adding reactive armor, electronics, sights, et. al. in collaboration with Israel, Poland and Russia. Persistent reports that many Indian T-72s lack effective IR-imagine equipment would appear to make such upgrades a priority item, but progress has been very slow.

Eventually, there is always the question of exports. Undoubtedly, the arms business is the most lucrative in the world. And given the true, savage instincts of hominids, the industry will be around for along time to come. The strongest argument critics of higher defence spending level against siphoning off money from development projects such as family planning and infrastructure is that an arms manufacturing capability is prohibitively expensive. That is most certainly true, for an arms industry requires, besides basic manufacturing plants, the ability to attract the best scientists and engineers and keeping them. It requires repeated testing and perfection to ensure the creation of a brand name. It requires highly sophisticated facilities for development and testing. This is subsidised usually subsidised by large orders from the Armed Forces, foreign as well as national. To aspire to an indigenous capability to provide weapons only for one’s own country in this day and age is utter nonsense.

Thus far, even India’s home-grown technology has not been entirely home-grown. In 1963, A.P.J Abdul Kalam, the man who would later go on to develop India’s Agni Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) system, spent four months in training in the United States. He visited NASA's Langley Research Centre in Virginia, where the U.S. Scout rocket was conceived, and the Wallops Island Flight Centre on the Virginia coast, where it was being tested. The United States also helped India build the Thumba Range, training Indian engineers in rocket launching and range operations. In November 1963, the United States launched a sounding rocket from the range, and since then until 1975, more than 350 U.S., French, Soviet, and British sounding rockets were fired from Thumba. In 1965, the United States sold to India the technical reports on the Scout’s design although it was technically considered classified under Munitions Control. The French had India build some of their rockets under license, allowing Indian engineers access to rocket design and liquid fuel propulsion technology. Similarly, West German aid flowed to India in the form of vital guidance systems in the mid-1970s. Even allowing for new technology being built on older systems, modern Indian weapons development programmes are hardly fully indigenous. Engines for the Tejas are not manufactured in India, and there is a long list of items that India imports from Western markets for its missile programmes.

What is quite amusing is the hubris India seems to have over the achievement of its Armed Forces. The only unqualified victory the Indians had in war was in 1971. Kargil was also a success, but the wars of 1948 and 1965 against Pakistan were more a matter of Pakistani ineptitude than Indian strategic brilliance. Besides, for a service that would need to be world-class if it is serious about defending India’s interests n the 21st century, should the Indian military really have such low standards as Pakistan for comparison? India will need o exert its might in the Indian Ocean from Somalia to Indonesia to protect its trade routes. Perhaps India may partake in a UN mission in the region substantially. India needs to balance China and awe Pakistan into inaction if it is to have a free hand in going about its other interests. For all this, we need more than the misty-eyed dreams of nationalists substituted for reality.

So in what form will Indian resistance manifest itself to Chinese occupation in 2250? Or dare we dream that it might just do so now?

The Talibanisation of Hinduism

So there we have it at last – Hindu terrorists. In September 2008, three bombs attached to bicycles exploded in Malegaon, a small town in Nasik District, Maharashtra. At least 37 people died and over 125 were injured in what was clearly an attack on the Muslim community in the town - the bombs had detonated by a mosque just after Friday prayers. In a separate series of incidents in February 2009, in Bangalore, Mysore, Mangalore, and elsewhere, young women were attacked in public by the Shri Ram Sena or its equivalents. The charge? They were consorting with the opposite sex, consuming alcohol, inappropriately dressed (jeans, t-shirt), were outside the home for said purposes. In these two examples, we have proof of the ‘talibanisation’ of Hinduism. In the first example, Hindus lashed out against a non-Hindu religious group, and in the second example, “protectors” of Hindu culture turned on their own, threatening and inflicting physical punishment for what they deemed unacceptable behaviour.

Now let us compare and contrast this state of affairs with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, or Saudi Arabia for that matter. In Afghanistan, women were kept at home, subject to acid attacks if they dared to not wear the burqa, and denied access to even schooling. In short, they were sex slaves for men, who traded them for political and other favours by giving them in marriage without regard to the age and personality of the suitor. In Saudi Arabia, a woman is not allowed to leave the house without her husband, father, or brother present (SOURCE: Jean Sasson’s Princess and Daughters of Arabia). Saudi Arabia ranks among the top nations where honour killings are prevalent, in the illustrious company of ‘Palestine’ and Pakistan. Female circumcision is not uncommon either. In the case of violent targeting of minority groups, or subjecting them to the laws of the dominant religion, we need not look elsewhere – the above-mentioned states implement draconian laws governing fasting, conversion, dress, consumables, and other things.

As far back as my memory serves me, these practices were seen as primitive and barbaric to say the least. However, in the last few months, they have risen in status that they are now worthy of being imported to Hinduism and India. At this point, it is fair to ask if anyone sees the difference between Islamic fundamentalists and terrorists and their Hindu brethren. In India, groups like the Bajrang Dal, Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Shiv Sena, and others have repeatedly made a political issue out of religion and targeted Muslims, though to be fair, the Shiv Sena targets anyone who is not a Mumbaikar. Investigations into Malegaon threw up an entire array of unheard of names - Rashtriya Jagran Manch, Abhinav Bharat, and the Abhinav Bharat Sansthan. What is worse, these ragtag little wannabe terrorists were discovered to have had connections in the Indian Army, which supplied them with explosives. The rot, therefore, did not stop at a few bigots in a village but seeped all the way into the Army. The point of this is not to blame the Army but to take note of how pervasive these sentiments are nowadays in India and the powerful positions people with such bigoted views hold.

The argument is obvious – these criminals claim a tit-for-tat reciprocity that Muslim terrorists have also claimed against their targets in Israel, India, the United States, and Europe. Although I understand the anger that fuels such reaction – we all do…think about a place you hold to be holy being bombed – the problem with this response is that it always sinks to the lowest common denominator. If we sink to terrorism, then we are no better and it is at that point merely social Darwinism. Besides, given the huge numbers on both sides, if this behaviour is taken to its logical conclusion, the only end I can see is a genocide of epic proportions. And this goes against every civilizing instinct I have.

Looking at that other group, the voluntary army of protectors of Indian women’s virtues, the problem is not knowing what they stand for. They claim to stand for ‘Indian’ culture. Never mind that there was no such thing as India before 1947. Perhaps they stand for Hindu culture. In that case, did the brigands ask for religious identification before beating up random women? Because, by law, they cannot force all women to follow Hindu customs, for many may not be Hindu. Let that be for a minute. What is Hindu culture? Ask a Brahmin and ask a shudra and you will get two different answers. Or ask a Bengali and a Tamilian about dietary laws and we can say goodbye to another few hours lost in their debate. My point here is that we cannot even agree on what Hindu culture is – is it the same culture that built all the erotic temples all over the subcontinent and gave the world the sex manual? Of course, again, we are assuming Hindu culture remained static, never changing due to the influences of politics, philosophy, and other religions, even climate. Any study of the history of Hinduism and the six schools of thought that dominated it will easily show you how ridiculous a notion this is.

My arguments have been rational so far, not taking into account that these people are fundamentally irrational. What we need to recognize is that these people, whatever religion or other group they may belong to, are a cancer. It is only a truly secular society with a strong commitment to law that can survive this challenge of the times and remain civilized. Religion can have no place in politics, no matter the provocation – as the Chinese proverb says, it is hard to dismount a tiger. Right-wingers and conservatives can argue around economics, foreign policy, and other issues, but we should not in principle even hear out a candidate from a Party that wishes to harp on religious victimisation – those grievances must be settled by the law, and if not, there are mechanisms that will ensure redress. An impatient moment now and a vote for a religious bigot will mean endless trouble later. At first, things may go your way, but the wages of this shortcut are inevitably a society in which we are all cowering in the basement, fearful of hijackings, acid attacks, and bombs on trains.

In January 2009, even the Dalai Lama, a man given to peace to the point of not fomenting an armed revolution to save his own country, said that terrorism cannot be tackled by applying the principle of ahimsa because the minds of terrorists are closed. "It is difficult to deal with terrorism through non-violence," the Tibetan spiritual leader said delivering the Madhavrao Scindia Memorial Lecture in Delhi. He termed terrorism as the worst kind of violence which is not carried by a few mad people but by those who are very brilliant and educated. "They (terrorists) are very brilliant and educated...but a strong ill feeling is bred in them. Their minds are closed," the Dalai Lama said. He said the only way to tackle terrorism is through prevention. This prevention that can only be borne by an open and tolerant society, not moved by anger or hate but by law.

Of course, I can already feel the question being formed: What is the difference then between the violence of terrorism and the violence of anti-terrorism? Is it not merely a matter of perspective? The answer to that lies in a beautiful line from the Mahabharata: those prone to get drunk get drunk on knowledge, wealth, and good birth; but the same are triumphs of the strict.

The Bombay Massacre

It is perhaps the politically correct thing to mutter cliches about the bravery of our fallen men-in-arms, how they died gallantly in service of their country, and what outstanding people they were. Those of you who know me will not be surprised if I refuse to do so. The police officers and soldiers who died did not wish to die – as the American General said, patriotism is about making the other dumb bastard die for his country.

Let us look at the Bombay tragedy and the Indian response closely. First, the complete and utter failure of intelligence needs to be recognised. Second, the lack of an intelligence service should be addressed. Third, we must consider that perhaps India deserves what happened, given the kind of leaders WE elected into office. Fourth, the media element – who in blazes covers security operations against terrorists LIVE?

I am fully aware that terrorism in its nature seeks to attack where unexpected and with indeterminate force. It is NOT possible to stop ALL terror attacks. That, however, should not be our excuse for not stopping any, or handling situations once they have been presented ineptly. Part of the blame goes to the great Congress Party for this debacle. Repealing POTA was perhaps among the most treasonous things it has done (along with socialism, the war with China in 1962, and the Mandal Commission). This hampered what little effort Indian police were capable of putting into counter terrorism. Secondly, India needs to wake up to a new beast – international terrorism. So far, we have fought limited battles over Kashmir with them, and the regular bomb blasts around the country aimed more at communal disharmony than destablising the entire nation. Of course, there are exceptions, but by and large, India’s terrorist problems have fallen under one umbrella - Pakistan. What we witnessed was a far more sophisticated form of terrorism whose roots go not just to Pakistan’s ISI but to al Qaeda. The meticulous planning surpasses anything the Pakistanis have yet done and the support, logistics, and supplies implicate a far more able adversary. India is now – in terrorist eyes – like any other Western power or Israel.

In the face of this new threat, it is worth mentioning that India does not have an espionage agency as most other nations do. The IB, RAW, CID, and other departments all fall under the jurisdiction of the Indian Police Service. There is no agency in India that conducts espionage and counter-espionage that is responsible only to the Prime Minister’s Office and Parliament. I am nt sure what his is an outgrowth of, but it certainly smacks of turf wars. It is a pity that protecting one’s turf and budget is more important than the country, but that is exactly the message that is being sent to the Indian people by the government bureaucracy. Unless this is rectified, we cannot expect better performance than what we have seen. India certainly has the technology to deploy spy satellites that keep an eye on our enemies’ moves, intercept their communications, and such – so why are we not doing it?

Later stories revealed unparalleled corruption and nepotism among the rank and file of the intelligence services. According to a DNA investigation, within days of taking over as R&AW chief, Chaturvedi ordered the agency to hire his own private flat in Noida, on Delhi’s outskirts, as a safe house. As R&AW chief, Chaturvedi has almost autonomous control of over the agency’s annual budget of over Rs. 1,000 crore. Sources spoken to by DNA said that R&AW may also have provided financial assistance to Chaturvedi’s son based in Europe from discretionary funds meant for intelligence operations, but no documentary evidence on this was available. However, other sources confirmed this allegation. Chaturvedi’s detractors also talk of the R&AW chief’s house being staffed by over two dozen agency personnel. Among them: staff to look after his dogs, two cooks, almost half a dozen telephone operators and four gardeners.

The Bombay Police were not far behind in claiming their share of the Government largesse. Senior ministers had repeatedly stressed that the force would be modernised and equipped with machines that would allow it to return terrorists' firepower. But most of those promises have remained on paper, even a cursory glance at the last few years' budgetary provisions reveal. Records show that the government has spent Rs 940 crore on "modernisation'' in the last eight years. But most of the money has been used for construction of new police stations, administrative buildings and buying luxury sedans for senior IPS officers. "We had adequate funds but never upgraded our firepower to tackle terror attacks. That was why we were helpless when terrorists attacked Mumbai,'' a senior IPS officer said, adding that 60% of the Rs 940 crore was spent on buildings and cars and very little on improving mobility or upgrading weapons and ammunition.

Officials say the home department's focus is on procuring luxury vehicles and accessories for top officers. Maharashtra has 22 additional DGPs and four DGPs. Every one has a luxury sedan. IGPs and SPs too have modern cars at their disposal and at least 20 such cars are at the disposal of the deputy CM himself. Some of them are used by him, the remaining are used by his staff. "Chinese-made beacons worth about Rs 30,000 had been fitted on many of these vehicles but could not be replaced after they stopped working as there was no warranty,'' an official added. Officials expected the home department to draft a plan to buy bullet-proof cars for officers in sensitive posts, replace age-old weapons and procure more bullet-proof jackets for personnel. But none of that has happened. "We have no ammunition for training State Reserve Police Force officials and so most SRPF constables have absolutely no experience of using rifles. They use it when they are summoned to tackle a mob or to control riots,'' the IPS officer said. A programme was drafted for getting AK-47s and replacing obsolete weapons two years ago but it was not followed up seriously. Maharashtra, as a result, is the only state in India where most cops embark on sensitive operations with old weapons. Ditto for bullet-proof jackets.

Coming more specifically to the events of the three horrific days, a huge part of the responsibility for the failure in Bombay must also be borne by the people of Bombay. They chose to send an actor (Govinda) unversed in the running of a state to Parliament and elect a criminal (Arun Gawli) to the state legislature. It is not in the least bit surprising to me that these characters have been found wanting in a time of crisis. Democracy gives us the right to be utterly stupid and the citizens of India proudly abuse this right. Today, when Mumbaikars (and Indians) look to the Maharashtra government in disappointment, let me remind them that they were the ones who chose to votes with their rears rather than their heads. An incident that really drives home my point is when Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister R R Patil kicked off a row when he said "such small incidents happen" with reference to terror attacks in Bombay. He said, scarce realising his faux pas, "bade shahron mein aise ek adh hadse hote rahte hain. Woh 5,000 logon ko marne aye the lekin humne kitna kum nuksan hone diya . (Such small incidents happen in big cities. They (terrorists) came to kill 5,000 people but we ensured minimal damage)"

The fourth and most fundamental failure was the media. Indian news anchors belong to that part of hell where stupidity and treason are both found. I have NEVER seen the media cover commando operations in progress live on national television. Any terrorist with a blackberry could have planned a response based on the feed from our own TV stations. Israel went so far as to condemn the Indian operation at Nariman Bhavan as premature and lacking. Although we are not privy to the logistical details of the NSG, I can guarantee you that one thing the Israelis were appalled by was our brain dead media. Not only was the camera coverage shockingly lacking in common sense but so was the audio commentary. I wasn’t sure whether to cry or to laugh when I heard journalists ask their cameramen the positions of the commandos and other such blatantly retarded questions. On the rare occasion the Indian media was not conspiring with the terrorists, they were busy with the usual clichés about bravery, honour, and sacrifice. Needless to say, they have reacted angrily to Israel’s criticism of Indian operations, perhaps because Israel was criticising their role more than our commandos.

Other bloggers have also lashed out at the Indian media for doing a "pathetic job". In his post entitled 'Pennies Prevail Over Prudence', blogger Veetrag called the media "irresponsible" and "sensational". "I am watching TV channels — NDTV, IBN-CNN, India TV, Sahara Samay, Star News and many others and have realised that none of them are doing their job properly," said Veetrag. Among the ineptness that the blogger complained about included the media's penchant for providing sensitive information, shooting close-ups of injured people instead of helping them, and their lack of sensitivity towards released hostages in the quest for headline news. "It's not even minutes that the lady has come out of such horrible situation and our reporter is asking silly questions... and pushing her to the point that she starts crying."

155 dead and 327 wounded - it was a high price to pay for the public and the Indian Government to awaken. I hope in G-d’s name that these questions I raised are being seriously looked into behind the closed doors of politicians, intelligence services, and private citizens. The end of the Cold War brought an uncertain world, and an unforgiving one at that. If this is how India continues to handle its challenges, we will be left talking only of the glories of Indian civilisation 5,000 years past, for there will be no new tales to recount.